
Brent crude rose 1.39% to $92.76 a barrel and WTI rose 0.57% to $86.53 after Iran's security official said enriched nuclear material would stay in Iran. Expectations for a US-Iran end-of-war deal weakened.
Fading peace prospects add a geopolitical premium to crude, which raises diesel and energy costs for feed production and can lift vegetable oil and ethanol prices.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.