
Oil prices steadied after a recent slump, with WTI near $86 and Brent below $93. Iran said it would not remove enriched nuclear material from the country, undermining hopes for US-Iran negotiations, while Saudi output rose 26% in October.
Persistent geopolitical risk keeps a premium in crude, supporting energy costs for feed mills, while signs of physical surplus limit upside and reduce input costs over time.
After 60 past neutral geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -4.7% to +2.3%), and -1.9% over 20.
After 63 past neutral geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -0.5% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -4.4% to +2.6%), and -2.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.