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IKAR raised its stress-scenario forecast for Russian grain exports in the current agricultural season to 36.5 million tonnes from 35 million, including wheat exports of 30 million tonnes instead of 29 million. It also cut its overall export estimate to 49.5 million tonnes from 52.8 million, with the wheat estimate reduced to 39.5 million from 42 million tonnes.
The higher stress-case projection points to more grain reaching export markets than previously expected, but the lower overall forecast still signals tighter Russian export availability than the prior estimate. This is potentially supportive for global wheat prices, though the net effect depends on which forecast scenario materializes.
agrobook.ruNov 11, 2026After 431 past bullish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.1%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 729 past bullish trade events, Corn moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.8%), and +0.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
