Canadian grain exports for 2024/25 face mixed prospects, with wheat supported by strong demand. Global wheat supply among major exporters is down year on year, and EU and Black Sea exports are forecast to fall by 16 to 18 million tonnes, so other exporters must fill the gap.
Lower EU and Black Sea supplies require buyers to source 8 to 10 million tonnes elsewhere, which supports wheat prices. Argentina's quality problems add to the tightness.
After 431 past bullish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.1%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.