
The article says the dollar index is near an 18-month high, but much of its rise since August reflects the euro’s decline. The euro’s 5% fall accounts for about 2.7 percentage points of the index’s 3.4-point gain, in part because the euro carries a 57.6% weight in the index.
The index’s heavy euro weighting means its strength may overstate broad-based dollar gains. A stronger dollar can weigh on dollar-priced commodity affordability, but this analysis does not identify a new feed supply or demand change.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 533 past bearish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.2% to +0.2%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.