
The US EPA proposed requiring larger refiners to take on 100% of the biofuel blending obligations waived for small refineries. The waivers cover about 1.76 billion RINs granted to 29 refineries for 2025; the EPA is considering assigning the obligations across 2026 and 2027 or entirely to 2027, with comments open until December 4.
Reallocating the obligations would preserve mandated demand for ethanol and biodiesel, supporting demand for corn and soybean oil feedstocks versus a scenario where the exemptions reduce blending. The effect depends on the final rule and timing of compliance.
After 318 past bullish policy events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.