
The Philippines’ Department of Agriculture reported ₱9.99 billion in agricultural damage and losses associated with El Niño, affecting more than 324,000 farmers and damaging over 323,000 hectares across 16 regions. Reported production losses totaled 288,424 tonnes, while rice output is projected to fall by about one million tonnes from 2025 and corn output by a further 500,000 tonnes.
The country faces prolonged dry conditions through the first half of 2027, alongside higher input costs and damage from flooding.
Lower domestic rice and corn production could tighten Philippine supplies and increase import demand, supporting prices. The losses may also raise feed costs if reduced local corn availability requires greater sourcing from elsewhere.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 179 past bullish weather events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.5%), and +2.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.