
Soybean prices fell 4.5% in October to $12.34 per bushel, their sharpest monthly decline since December 2025, after reaching a high of $13.35 in September. Expectations for a record US crop and faster harvesting weighed on prices, although the article also notes that Middle East conflict and Strait of Hormuz supply disruption had raised global fertilizer-supply concerns.
A larger expected US crop and accelerating harvest increase available supply and weigh on soybean prices. Fertilizer disruption could add longer-term production-cost and supply risks, but the immediate reported driver was the record-crop outlook.
After 363 past bearish weather events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.