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A Serasa Experian study estimates that a strong El Niño could reduce Brazil’s 2026/27 soybean crop to 163.6 million tonnes, 17.6 million tonnes below a neutral-weather scenario. The article says current weather poses no immediate threat, with January conditions expected to be important for yields.
If the adverse weather scenario materializes, reduced Brazilian output could tighten global soybean supplies and lift prices. The price risk remains conditional because the crop is not currently under immediate weather threat.
ukragroconsult.comNov 11, 2026After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
