Crude oil outlook remains bearish as Persian Gulf supplies recover, war premium fades: Emkay

After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.

• Apr 18, 2024Crude oil prices today: WTI falls below $83 as war fear eases+0.5%
• Sep 19, 2025Crude oil trades lower as Trump pledges support for post-war peace between Russia and Ukraine - The HinduBusinessLine+2.4%
• Sep 21, 2018Exclusive - OPEC and allies consider oil output boost as Iranian supply falls: source | Reuters+1.9%
• May 6, 2026Brent Crude Price: Oil and gas plunge after report US and Iran near deal to end war+0.0%
• Apr 1, 2026Grain, Oilseed Prices Fall as Traders Look for End to Iran War - Bloomberg-6.6%

After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.

• Apr 18, 2024Crude oil prices today: WTI falls below $83 as war fear eases+0.1%
• Sep 19, 2025Crude oil trades lower as Trump pledges support for post-war peace between Russia and Ukraine - The HinduBusinessLine+3.4%
• Nov 18, 2022European refiners oversupplied as oil shortage fears subside-5.4%
• Sep 21, 2018Exclusive - OPEC and allies consider oil output boost as Iranian supply falls: source | Reuters+3.5%
• May 6, 2026Brent Crude Price: Oil and gas plunge after report US and Iran near deal to end war-2.3%