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The euro rose to a two-week high against the dollar as traders priced in a likely 75 basis point ECB rate hike in October after euro zone inflation hit a record 10%. The dollar weakened as US Treasury yields fell after weak US manufacturing data.
Expected ECB tightening narrows the rate gap with the US and weakens the dollar, which tends to support dollar-priced commodities such as grains and oilseeds. Feed buyers may see slightly firmer dollar-denominated import costs in Europe.
economies.comRami HaddadOct 4, 2022After 388 past bullish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.4% to +1.1%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Expectations of a 75bp ECB hike after record 10% inflation, plus lower US yields on weak manufacturing data, lifted the euro to a two-week high.
