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An outlook for Australian agriculture identifies conflicts, political decisions, disrupted trade routes, energy volatility and weather as major influences on markets in 2027. It highlights Black Sea access as important for global wheat and barley prices, biofuel demand and tighter oilseed supplies as support for canola, and rainfall and strong beef demand as positive for Australian cattle.
Disruptions to Black Sea grain shipments could tighten export availability and support wheat and barley prices, while stronger biofuel demand and tighter oilseed supply could support canola. A potential end to the US-Iran war could lower fuel and fertilizer costs, easing farm expenses.
commbank.com.auCommBankNov 11, 2026After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
