
CF Industries reported net earnings of $1.78 billion for the first nine months of 2026, up from $1.05 billion a year earlier, and said ammonia output ran at 97% of available capacity. The company reported that Middle Eastern urea exports through the Persian Gulf remain below normal amid the Iran conflict, while European and Trinidadian ammonia capacity has also been curtailed.
Reduced fertilizer production and exports from the Middle East, Europe, and Trinidad tighten global nitrogen supply and could support urea prices. High utilization at CF’s plants helps meet deferred demand but does not fully offset those disruptions.
After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.