
Oil traded near $90 a barrel as markets responded to signs that U.S.-Iran tensions could ease. Middle Eastern crude exports had recovered to near pre-war levels, increasing concern about a potential supply glut.
The recovery of regional exports adds supply to the market and raises the risk of surplus, weighing on crude prices if demand does not absorb the additional barrels.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.