
Oil prices rose from two-month lows as traders balanced hopes of de-escalation in the Iran war against attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. The report cited 37 ship attacks in October and further incidents in November, including tankers damaged or set ablaze.
Shipping attacks and the risks of mine clearance, insurance costs, and vessel access may constrain oil flows and support crude prices despite hopes for a truce.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.