
The Brazilian real weakened as the dollar rose more than 1% to R$5.58, its highest level of the year, while the Ibovespa fell 0.52%. The move came as US inflation data exceeded expectations and Brazil’s Copom minutes were released.
A stronger US dollar raises the local-currency cost of imported feed and agricultural inputs in Brazil, potentially lifting domestic prices. The US inflation surprise also reinforced expectations for tighter US monetary policy.
After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.