
The euro fell back toward the lower end of its recent range after US inflation data exceeded forecasts. Traders increased bets on further Federal Reserve rate hikes, while ECB officials signalled that eurozone rate decisions remain uncertain.
A wider expected US–eurozone interest-rate gap supports the dollar and weighs on the euro, potentially making dollar-denominated feed imports more expensive for eurozone buyers.
After 533 past bearish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.2% to +0.2%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.