The euro slipped against the dollar after reports that the ECB would be willing to buy more Italian government bonds if the constitutional referendum pushes up borrowing costs. Polls suggested voters would reject the reform, and Prime Minister Renzi has pledged to resign in that case.
Political risk in Italy and possible ECB support shift the euro-dollar rate, and a stronger dollar tends to soften dollar-priced grain and oilseed values for importers.
After 533 past bearish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.2% to +0.2%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.