Forex Today: Focus shifts to ECB-speak and German inflation

After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.

• Jan 30, 2017Euro hits 11-day low after German inflation data miss-1.2%
• Apr 30, 2018Euro-Dollar Exchange Rates To Face German Inflation, FED And US Jobs This Week | Exchange Rates UK+1.0%
• May 31, 2023German inflation drops to lowest level in more than a year-0.5%
• Mar 7, 2024Markets see clearer ECB rate-cut roadmap as inflation fog lifts - The Globe and Mail-0.4%
• Aug 1, 2025Dollar rises while global stock index falls; inflation and tariffs in focus-1.0%

After 533 past bearish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.2% to +0.2%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Jan 30, 2017Euro hits 11-day low after German inflation data miss+1.0%
• May 31, 2023German inflation drops to lowest level in more than a year-0.3%
• Mar 7, 2024Markets see clearer ECB rate-cut roadmap as inflation fog lifts - The Globe and Mail+0.3%
• Jun 30, 2026EUR/USD Edges Lower as German Inflation Cools and ECB Signals Further Tightening Potential - VT Markets-0.0%
• Nov 29, 2019Euro-Dollar Gets No Joy from Inflation Gains as German Politics and U.S. Tariff Threat Loom+0.9%

After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Apr 4, 2025Trump tariffs likely to raise inflation, slow US economic growth: Fed | AP News-10.2%
• Jun 30, 2026ECB’s Sleijpen: Energy price retreat will have an impact on inflation-3.1%
• May 1, 2019Canadian dollar weakens as Fed inflation view boosts greenback - The Globe and Mail-3.8%
• Aug 19, 2025Canada’s annual inflation rate eases to 1.7 per cent in July, core measures stay firm - Grainews+1.4%
• Nov 16, 2022Canadian dollar retreats from 100-day moving average as inflation holds steady - The Globe and Mail-6.9%