
Crude futures extended losses after President Trump signaled he did not see a need for renewed military action against Iran for now, reducing fears of prolonged supply disruptions. A Reuters survey also found OPEC output rose in October, led by Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq, although Strait of Hormuz shipping risks remained elevated.
A lower geopolitical risk premium and increased OPEC production add to available crude supply and pressure oil prices, potentially easing energy and transport costs for feed buyers.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.