U.S. October CPI rose 0.4%, above the 0.3% forecast, while core inflation also exceeded expectations. The data lifted the probability of a 50-basis-point Fed rate hike in December to about 13.6% from zero, and strengthened the dollar and Treasury yields as gold fell more than 2%.
A stronger dollar and expectations of tighter monetary policy can weigh on dollar-denominated commodity prices. The report is supportive of the dollar and may add modest headwind to feed-commodity prices.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.