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A stress-case analysis says a strong El Niño could reduce Brazil’s 2026/27 soybean crop by 17.6 million tonnes, or 9.7%. Other forecasters still anticipate a record harvest, underscoring uncertainty around the weather outlook.
A loss of this scale would tighten global soybean supply and support soybean prices, but it is a downside scenario rather than the prevailing consensus forecast. The contrast with record-crop expectations makes weather developments and subsequent crop estimates especially important.
efeedlink.comeFeedLink NewsdeskNov 9, 2026After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
