The EIA reports that crude oil prices fell sharply in early 2020 amid COVID-19 economic contraction and a surge in supply after OPEC and partner production cuts were suspended. Daily WTI price swings became extremely volatile, and the OVX oil volatility index reached 190 on March 20, its highest since inception in 2007.
Extreme volatility widens trading ranges and raises hedging costs for buyers of energy-linked feed inputs. Falling crude prices with a demand collapse point to lower energy costs and weaker prices for biofuel-linked feed ingredients.
After 565 past bearish macro events, WTI moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.