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Brazil’s Focus survey raised the median forecast for the year-end 2026 Selic rate to 13.75% from 13.50% and nudged the year-end exchange-rate forecast to R$5.35 per dollar from R$5.34. The survey also lifted its 2027 inflation forecast to 4.90% from 4.76%, while its 2026 forecast stayed at 5.22%.
Higher expected interest rates may support the real, but the weaker exchange-rate forecast and rising inflation expectations point to continued currency and cost uncertainty for Brazilian importers. The report is a forecast revision, not a policy change or measured inflation outcome.
folitic.comNov 10, 2026After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
