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The EIA projected that U.S. retail diesel prices will average $4.49 per gallon in 2027, down from its $5.19 forecast for 2026, as crude prices fall and fuel stocks recover. It cautioned that distillate inventories are expected to remain below their recent average and that disruptions to crude flows could make prices more volatile.
Lower crude prices and recovering fuel stocks would ease diesel costs for feed transport and farm operations. Persistently low inventories and crude-flow disruptions could limit the decline or renew upward pressure.
aftermarketnews.comKevin LingerNov 10, 2026After 79 past bearish macro events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -1.0% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -5.7% to +1.7%), and -1.5% over 20.
After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
