
European gas prices fell to about €80/MWh, their lowest level in a month, as hopes for a diplomatic resolution to the Middle East conflict strengthened. Prices nevertheless remained about twice pre-war levels amid Persian Gulf supply disruptions, while colder weather, low renewable generation and Norwegian pipeline maintenance accelerated storage withdrawals.
Diplomatic progress weighs on the geopolitical risk premium, but supply disruptions and stronger withdrawals limit the potential for prices to fall further. The competing forces leave European gas costs vulnerable to renewed gains if supply recovery lags demand.
After 162 past geopolitics events, Natural Gas moved a median +2.2% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -2.0% to +7.5%), and +4.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.