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USDA FAS forecasts Australian barley production to rise 4.4% to a record 17.7 million tonnes in 2026/27, with exports projected at a record 13 million tonnes. Increased planting, favorable weather in southern regions, higher input costs for competing crops, and concern about El Niño-related rainfall deficits have influenced acreage decisions; wheat production is forecast to fall 11% to 32 million tonnes.
Record barley output and exports could weigh on Australian barley prices during harvest, while strong export demand—especially from China—may limit the decline. Lower wheat production than last year could lend some support to wheat, although projected exports remain historically high.
graintrade.com.uaNov 10, 2026graintrade.com.uaNov 10, 2026Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
