◂ Event Timeline

Jun 10, 2023WEATHERAustralia

Australian winter crop production to fall from consecutive record highs

ABARES forecast total Australian winter crop production to fall 34% to 44.9 million tonnes in 2023-24 after three record years. Below-average winter and spring rainfall is expected to lower yields, and mouse activity and grain losses from the previous harvest are also noted.

WHY IT MATTERS

Reduced Australian winter crop supply lowers export availability for wheat and barley, supporting feed grain prices in import markets.

AFFECTSWheat (SRW)▲Barley▲

SOURCE
internationalmilling.comMehmet Uğur GürkaynakJun 10, 2023

Price reaction & history

Wheat (SRW)▲bullishSO FAR1d -0.3%5d +1.1%20d +0.2%

After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.

Dec 6, 2018Wheat growers need to keep their eye on climate change - International Milling Directory-0.1%
Jan 2, 2019Winter crop production falls below 30 million tonnes | Queensland Country Life | QLD+1.3%
Dec 4, 2018Australia’s winter crop production estimated to plummet 23% | 2018-12-04 | World Grain-0.3%
Dec 4, 2018Winter crop production down after poor start to spring: ABARES - Grain Central-0.3%
Apr 16, 2020Winter Crop Prospects Improve Across Australia-1.8%

Barley▲bullish

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.

Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.

Wheat (SRW) WHEAT · GP ▸

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Barley BARLEY · GP ▸

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