
Oman crude prices edged down as Brent recorded a steep weekly decline amid expectations of US-Iran de-escalation and a recovery in oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Gulf crude exports through the strait averaged 10.3 million barrels per day in October, compared with virtually no exports in the first month of the war, excluding Iranian shipments.
Recovering Gulf shipments alongside constrained demand raises the prospect of a crude surplus, putting downward pressure on oil prices and potentially lowering energy-related costs for feed supply chains.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.