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WTI crude fell 4.38% on Monday, reaching a 2.25-month low, as markets responded to optimism about diplomatic progress toward ending the US-Iran war. Trump said further strikes were unlikely if peace talks advanced, while reports described discussions over Iran’s position on control of the Strait of Hormuz; the conflict and attacks in the region continued.
The prospect of restored Middle East energy flows reduces the conflict-related supply risk premium and weighs on crude prices, though continued hostilities could limit the downside.
barchart.comRich AsplundNov 9, 2026After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
