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FEWS NET says the 2026/27 El Niño has rapidly strengthened to very strong levels and is expected to cause significant rainfall anomalies across monitored regions. Below-average rainfall has already affected parts of East Africa, the West African Sahel, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Pakistan; Southern Africa is forecast to have drier-than-average rains, while the Horn of Africa faces elevated flood risk.
Rainfall disruptions can reduce crop production and food availability, with acute food insecurity often worsening during the subsequent lean season. The report points to risks to global food availability and prices, but gives no specific commodity price forecast.
farmingportal.co.zaNov 10, 2026After 2,467 past weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.7%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 1,964 past weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 1,773 past weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 361 past weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
