Oil prices fall as US eases Iran strike threats and OPEC boosts output, but Middle East risks linger.

After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.

• Jun 30, 2025Oil prices fall on easing Middle East risks+2.0%
• Oct 29, 2026US oil prices fall as investors gauge risks to Mideast supply By Reuters-2.3%
• Sep 21, 2018Exclusive - OPEC and allies consider oil output boost as Iranian supply falls: source | Reuters+1.9%
• Apr 13, 2026Oil prices fall as supply concerns ease on hopes for US-Iran talks - CNA-12.8%
• Jun 23, 2025Oil prices drop 6% as Israel-Iran ceasefire reduces Middle East supply risk | Reuters-12.2%

After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.

• Jun 30, 2025Oil prices fall on easing Middle East risks+1.6%
• Oct 29, 2026US oil prices fall as investors gauge risks to Mideast supply By Reuters-5.4%
• Sep 21, 2018Exclusive - OPEC and allies consider oil output boost as Iranian supply falls: source | Reuters+3.5%
• Apr 13, 2026Oil prices fall as supply concerns ease on hopes for US-Iran talks - CNA-11.3%
• Jun 23, 2025Oil prices drop 6% as Israel-Iran ceasefire reduces Middle East supply risk | Reuters-11.9%