
Crisil Ratings expects Indian sugar mills’ operating margins to fall by 140–160 basis points to about 6% this fiscal. Restrictions on ethanol made from sugar-based feedstocks, higher sugarcane procurement costs, and greater borrowing needs are squeezing profitability, while firm sugar prices provide some revenue support.
Limiting sugar-based ethanol reduces mills’ higher-margin fuel sales and keeps more sugar available for domestic use, while increased cane costs raise production expenses. The restriction can redirect ethanol feedstock demand toward grains such as corn and rice.
After 318 past bullish policy events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 168 past bullish policy events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.8% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.7% to +2.1%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.