Chinese urea prices faced downward pressure as expected export demand, including potential Indian tenders, had yet to materialize. Domestic supply remained ample while agricultural demand was in a seasonal lull and industrial buyers purchased mainly as needed; some producers cut prices to support sales.
Without export orders to absorb supply, the loose domestic balance and cautious buying leave prices vulnerable to further declines. UREA is bearish in the near term.
After 81 past bearish trade events, Urea moved a median -1.0% over 5 sessions (28% higher; middle half -7.2% to +0.4%), and -5.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.