
Vietnam's fertiliser export market declined in volume and price in the first half of 2023, with urea prices down 60-65% from a year earlier. China lifted restrictions on 29 fertiliser types, adding supply to world markets, and the Vietnam Fertiliser Association proposed cutting urea export tax to zero.
Abundant global fertiliser supply and lower prices reduce farmers' input costs over time, but weak fertiliser demand signals softer crop-input pressure for feed grain production.
After 81 past bearish trade events, Urea moved a median -1.0% over 5 sessions (28% higher; middle half -7.2% to +0.4%), and -5.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.