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India's RCF urea tender offered about 3.1 million tonnes, with Middle East urea rumoured near USD 325/tonne FOB and Russian prilled urea near USD 270/tonne FOB. Chinese urea is expected to return to export markets in late May and early June, with second-half exports estimated around 4 million tonnes.
Heavy offered volumes from India, Russia, the Middle East and China, plus lower Indian imports as domestic output rises, point to weaker urea prices in the coming months.
czapp.comStein Chingen HauganApr 2, 2024After 81 past bearish trade events, Urea moved a median -1.0% over 5 sessions (28% higher; middle half -7.2% to +0.4%), and -5.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The large RCF tender offer volume, low Middle East and Russian FOB price talk, and expected return of Chinese exports point to weak demand and plentiful supply, pushing prices down.
