
Global urea fell to $443 per metric ton on September 4, easing as Strait of Hormuz talks progressed and China expanded its export allowance. July Chinese shipments rose to about 403,000 tonnes from 7,000 in June.
The India RCF tender bought 1.78 million tonnes below $400 per tonne.
Expanded Chinese exports and a large Indian purchase increase seaborne supply, which pressures urea prices lower. Weaker Brazilian buying offsets part of that easing.
After 81 past bearish trade events, Urea moved a median -1.0% over 5 sessions (28% higher; middle half -7.2% to +0.4%), and -5.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.