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Oil prices declined on Monday after Trump said he was unlikely to order fresh strikes against Iran while talks continued. Attacks around the Strait of Hormuz maintained concerns about possible supply disruptions, although the article also cited high oil flows from the Middle East as weighing on prices.
Lower expectations of further strikes reduce crude's geopolitical risk premium, and strong regional flows add pressure to prices. Shipping attacks keep the potential for supply disruption—and a renewed risk premium—in play.
daily8.comHindustan TimesNov 9, 2026After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
