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A Climate Trends study of wheat and paddy cultivation in eight Indian states found that, after fiscal and environmental costs are counted, the social return in every wheat case was 36% to 182% below farmers’ direct financial benefit; two cases had negative social returns. The study attributes the gap partly to the artificially low fixed price of urea, which encourages heavy nitrogen use, and reports declining fertiliser efficiency.
The findings highlight how subsidised urea prices can sustain demand while shifting costs to public finances, energy inputs, soil and water. Any policy change to urea pricing or subsidies could alter fertiliser demand and costs for Indian crop producers.
timesofindia.indiatimes.comTNNNov 9, 2026After 26 past neutral policy events, Urea moved a median -1.0% over 5 sessions (27% higher; middle half -4.1% to +0.6%), and -2.5% over 20.
After 137 past neutral policy events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.2%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 100 past neutral policy events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -2.6% to +2.3%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
