Brent rose to $100.75 a barrel and WTI moved above $91 after attacks on commercial vessels near the Strait of Hormuz revived concerns about Middle Eastern oil shipments. UKMTO reported at least five vessel incidents in the Gulf since Sunday, while Iran’s IRGC said two tankers and a tugboat caught fire in separate incidents.
Threats to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz raise the risk of disrupted oil flows and higher freight and insurance costs, supporting crude prices. The rebound came as benchmarks were still set for a steep weekly loss.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.