
Brent fell to $92.25 a barrel and WTI to $86.85 as markets responded to President Donald Trump downplaying the likelihood of renewed strikes on Iran. The decline came despite ongoing threats to commercial shipping, while the article also noted recovering Hormuz flows and concerns about oversupply.
Reduced escalation fears and recovering flows lessen the geopolitical risk premium and weigh on crude prices. Lower oil can moderate fuel and logistics costs for feed supply chains, although shipping risks remain.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.