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A strong El Niño is developing, but rainfall across Malaysia’s and Indonesia’s palm-producing regions is currently near normal. Any drought-related reduction in palm yields is expected to lag by six to twelve months; Malaysia’s September data showed production rising 16.5% month on month, stocks increasing 31.9%, and exports falling 12.1%.
Normal rainfall limits the immediate risk of supply disruption, while the potential yield impact is mainly a concern for next year. High Malaysian stocks and weaker exports add near-term pressure to palm oil prices.
palmoileconomics.comNov 9, 2026After 29 past bearish weather events, Palm Oil moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -2.2% to +0.6%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
