Gold defies Fed hike bets, tops $4,100 as Oil rout hits the USD

After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Jul 1, 2023Oil drops 1.5% as Fed projects more rate hikes this year+3.4%
• May 4, 2023Outlook on gold as it hits record high, while USD and oil fall after Fed decision | IG International+5.7%
• Apr 17, 2023Canadian dollar slips, pressured by Fed rate hike bets - The Globe and Mail-5.7%
• Jan 24, 2022Oil falls 2% as Fed rate hike talk spooks risk markets+2.6%
• Sep 21, 2022WTI Falls as USD Spikes to 20-Year High after Fed Rate Hike-6.9%

After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.

• May 4, 2023Outlook on gold as it hits record high, while USD and oil fall after Fed decision | IG International-0.5%
• Jun 3, 2024Gold rises as soft US economic data spurs Fed rate cut bets+1.2%
• Dec 13, 2017Gold jumps 1% as dollar slips on Fed rate outlook - The Business Times-0.4%
• Jul 16, 2024Gold sprints to all-time high as Fed rate-cut hopes boost demand+0.5%
• Dec 7, 2022Gold jumps 1% as U.S. dollar, yields slip on Fed slowdown bets-1.0%