Oil drops 1.5% as Fed projects more rate hikes this year

After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Oct 4, 2023Oil plunges $5 in biggest one-day drop in more than a year-3.7%
• Sep 21, 2022WTI Falls as USD Spikes to 20-Year High after Fed Rate Hike-6.9%
• Jun 23, 2022Oil prices slump as investors fear Fed rate hikes will hurt demand | Reuters+4.5%
• Jan 24, 2022Oil falls 2% as Fed rate hike talk spooks risk markets+2.6%
• Feb 26, 2020Oil prices drop to lowest in more than a year as coronavirus spreads-5.2%

After 312 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -5.4% to +2.3%), and -1.7% over 20.

• Oct 4, 2023Oil plunges $5 in biggest one-day drop in more than a year-3.8%
• Jun 23, 2022Oil prices slump as investors fear Fed rate hikes will hurt demand | Reuters+4.3%
• Jan 24, 2022Oil falls 2% as Fed rate hike talk spooks risk markets+2.2%
• Feb 26, 2020Oil prices drop to lowest in more than a year as coronavirus spreads-5.6%
• Feb 27, 2023Oil futures slip 1% on worries about more U.S. interest rate hikes | Reuters+3.7%

After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.

• Jun 17, 2026Dollar jumps as Fed holds rates but projects one hike later this year | Reuters+1.8%
• Dec 16, 2016Dollar near 14-year highs after Fed tips more rate hikes+0.0%
• Jun 16, 2017US Fed indicates more rate hikes this year; what this means for Indian rupee+0.3%
• Jun 16, 2021Gold slides over 1% after Fed projects rate hikes into 2023+1.4%
• Jun 17, 2021Dollar surges to two-month high on Fed rate-hike projection+1.1%