
Egyptian granular urea was quoted at about $535 per ton FOB for November, up roughly 17% from September. Gas supplies to fertilizer plants have been rationed, though producers say they continue operating and meeting domestic demand and export commitments; the scale of any production impact depends on how long the cuts last.
Reduced gas availability can constrain Egyptian urea output and export supply, supporting international prices if restrictions persist. Egypt’s current ability to meet commitments limits the immediate supply impact.
After 92 past bullish macro events, Urea moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.0% to +3.6%), and +4.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.