EUR/USD, Oil Forecast: Two trades to watch

After 129 past neutral macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -0.5% to +0.5%), and +0.1% over 20.

• Nov 27, 2023EUR/USD Weekly Forecast: Outlook Turning Brighter for Europe | Investing.com-0.5%
• May 31, 2024EUR/USD outlook hinges on key upcoming macro events – Forex Friday+0.4%
• Jul 26, 2024EUR/USD appreciates to near 1.0850 ahead of US PCE inflation — Octa-0.7%
• Jan 28, 2021FX: Challenging our bearish dollar forecast | articles | ING THINK-0.6%
• Sep 12, 2024ECB dents traders' hopes for October rate cut+0.9%

After 312 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -5.4% to +2.3%), and -1.7% over 20.

• May 24, 2019Oil Falls As US-China Trade War, Demand Make 'Recipe for Disaster' - Business Insider-3.6%
• Apr 28, 2025Barclays cuts 2025 Brent crude forecast on trade tensions, OPEC+ shifts-8.2%
• Dec 1, 2021Oil prices sink again as traders use Omicron as an excuse to hit 'sell' | Reuters+6.8%
• Oct 16, 2024Oil prices hold at 2-week low on lower oil demand growth forecasts+2.5%
• Oct 29, 2020Oil falls more than 3%, on track for worst week since April+5.1%

After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Apr 28, 20202020-2022 Exchange Rate Forecasts: Pound-Dollar And Euro-Pound To Rise As USD Losses To Prevail+65.3%
• May 24, 2019Oil Falls As US-China Trade War, Demand Make 'Recipe for Disaster' - Business Insider-2.1%
• Dec 1, 2021Oil prices sink again as traders use Omicron as an excuse to hit 'sell' | Reuters+8.8%
• Oct 16, 2024Oil prices hold at 2-week low on lower oil demand growth forecasts+2.2%
• Oct 29, 2020Oil falls more than 3%, on track for worst week since April+4.6%