
The European Commission's MARS bulletin estimated September soybean yields at 15% below the five-year average for the 2026 summer crop season. It also forecast below-average yields for grain maize and several other summer crops, and reported that drought and excess water hindered winter-crop establishment.
Below-average soybean and maize yields point to reduced European crop availability, which may increase import demand and support prices. The winter-crop establishment difficulties add supply risk for the next crop season.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.