
Missy Bauer says the hot, dry late-season weather is reducing soybean seed size, which can cost 15 to 20 bushels per acre. The latest Drought Monitor shows 33% of U.S. soybeans and 26% of corn in drought, up sharply from August.
Smaller seed size could cut soybean yields below expectations at harvest, which tightens soybean and meal supply and supports prices.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.