
The IEA warned that the Iran war is constraining gas supplies and that global markets could remain tight well into 2027 as importers compete for fuel. EU gas inventories began the 2026–27 heating season at their lowest level since 2013, and could fall below 10% of capacity by the end of March 2027 if cold weather and LNG disruptions persist.
Constrained supply and low European storage leave less room to absorb demand spikes, supporting gas and LNG prices into winter and beyond.
After 136 past bullish geopolitics events, Natural Gas moved a median +2.7% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -1.8% to +8.8%), and +4.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.