Oil falls as Trump signals restraint on Iran despite fresh shipping attacks

After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.

• Mar 25, 2026Oil price: WTI, Brent fall as Trump signals Iran talks despite Tehran denial+15.0%
• Jan 8, 2020Oil Prices Drop Sharply as Worry Over Iran Attacks Fades-5.9%
• Jun 23, 2025Oil prices tumble as Iran signals de-escalation with limited missile attack | AP News-11.9%
• Apr 24, 2019Oil falls as supply still adequate despite Iran sanctions, but market tightening - CNBC TV18-2.6%
• Mar 24, 2026Traders bet $500 million on oil price just before Trump's post on delay to Iran attack | Reuters+15.1%

After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.

• Mar 25, 2026Oil price: WTI, Brent fall as Trump signals Iran talks despite Tehran denial+10.2%
• Jan 8, 2020Oil Prices Drop Sharply as Worry Over Iran Attacks Fades-7.0%
• Jun 23, 2025Oil prices tumble as Iran signals de-escalation with limited missile attack | AP News-12.2%
• Apr 24, 2019Oil falls as supply still adequate despite Iran sanctions, but market tightening - CNBC TV18-3.6%
• Feb 2, 2026Oil Falls 5%, ULSD Tumbles 14% on De-Risking Over Iran-1.6%